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Hurricane JAVIER (Text)

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 16 2004
 
OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE OVERPASSES DEPICTED A PERSISTANT SMALL...
PARTIALLY OPEN...10 NM EYE WITH A STRONG BANDING FEATURE RESIDING
OVER THE WEST PERIPHERY. A RECENT TRMM AND AMSR-E PASSES INDICATED
THAT THE EYEWALL WAS COMPLETELY INTACT...SUGGESTING THAT AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAD TAKEN PLACE. SHORTWAVE INFRARED AND EARLY
VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO REVEAL THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME RELATIVELY
CLOUD-FREE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 5.5 FROM SAB
AND AFWA...AND 5.0 FROM TAFB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT
100 KT BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE EYEWALL. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS
THE SHIPS WHICH DECREASES JAVIER TO A 20 KT REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.   

THE MICROWAVE PASSES AND THE 12Z BD ENHANCEMENT INFRARED IMAGE
SUPPORT A SLIGHT REPOSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. WITH THE SLIGHT TRACK ADJUSTMENT...INITIAL MOTION IS
315/5 KT. AS HURRICANE IVAN CONTINUES ON A NORTHWARD MOTION OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES...A MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD
GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE EAST OVER MEXICO...INFLUENCING JAVIER
ON A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A
REDUCTION IN SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE
TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
BY DAY 5...JAVIER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS A REMNANT LOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS BASED OFF OF THE CONU CONSENSUS. 


FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1500Z 19.6N 110.6W   100 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 20.3N 111.2W    90 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 21.4N 112.2W    85 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 22.6N 113.3W    75 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 24.0N 114.4W    65 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 27.0N 115.5W    45 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 28.5N 115.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     21/1200Z 31.0N 114.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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