Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU SEP 16 2004

THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY OF JAVIER SHOWS THE CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED BETTER BANDING FEATURES AND THE THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
IS MORE CLEARLY EVIDENT THAN FROM PREVIOUS IMAGERY WHICH DEPICTED A
MORE RAGGED SYSTEM. AN AVERAGE AMONG CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE CENTERS GIVES JAVIER AN APPROXIMATE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 100 KTS. THE ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK
TECHNIQUE RUN BY AFWA ALSO INDICATES 100 KTS...AND THAT IS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/7. JAVIER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE EARLY FORECAST PERIOD AROUND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST DEEPENS AND MOVES JAVIER
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PUNTA EUGENIA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MOVES
JAVIER PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE AND WITH WIND RADII EXTENDING 100
MILES OUTWARD FROM THE CENTER...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY
IMPACT THESE COASTAL AREAS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM 24-72 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FROM 0-72 HRS REMAINS GENERALLY
UNCHANGED AS IT FOLLOWS CONU...GUNS...AND GUNA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...A MORE NORTHEASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE TRACK WAS
MADE AS JAVIER MOVES INTO A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME.

SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS JAVIER MOVES
OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER. AFTER 72 HOURS...JAVIER WILL BE MOVING
OVER MUCH COLDER WATER AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE
QUICKLY AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES CLOSER TO THE
DEEPENING MID-LEVEL WEST COAST TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE WHICH WEAKENS JAVIER
TO A TROPICAL STORM BEYOND 48 HOURS AND FURTHER WEAKENS IT TO
DEPRESSION STRENGTH IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER SISKO/JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0900Z 19.8N 110.2W   100 KT
 12HR VT     16/1800Z 20.6N 110.7W    90 KT
 24HR VT     17/0600Z 21.8N 111.6W    80 KT
 36HR VT     17/1800Z 23.0N 112.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     18/0600Z 24.1N 113.6W    60 KT
 72HR VT     19/0600Z 26.5N 115.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     20/0600Z 28.6N 115.0W    30 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT     21/0600Z 31.0N 114.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  
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