Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 15 2004
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. JAVIER IS EXPECTED MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BY 96 HOURS......A REDUCTION IN
SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GUNA CONSENSUS
MODEL.

SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS AS JAVIER MOVES
OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATER AND COOLER STABLE AIR GETS DRAWN INTO
THE SYSTEM FROM WEST. AFTER 72 HOURS...JAVIER WILL BE MOVING OVER
MUCH COLDER WATER AND THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE
QUICKLY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY
MODELS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 19.2N 109.5W   110 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 110.0W   100 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 21.1N 110.8W    95 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 22.3N 111.7W    90 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 23.5N 112.8W    80 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 25.9N 114.7W    60 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 27.8N 115.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     21/0000Z 29.2N 115.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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