ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED SEP 15 2004 A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON FOR A PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. AN EARLIER 15/0503Z TRMM PASS DEPICTED A SMALL ROUND EYE WITH A STRONG BANDING FEATURE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. LAST NIGHT'S IMAGERY REVEALED A COLLAPSE OF THE EYE WALL OVER THE NORTH QUADRANT...SUGGESTING AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS TAKEN PLACE. THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 115 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...125 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED ONLY TO 120 KT JUST IN CASE JAVIER MAY UNDERGO ANOTHER EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. SATELLITE ANIMATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DEPICTS A HINT OF EASTERLY SHEAR HAMPERING THE OUTFLOW OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT NEARLY STRONG ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 200 MB SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS AN UPPER HIGH OVER MEXICO...BETWEEN IVAN AND JAVIER. ONCE IVAN MOVES INLAND...OUTFLOW COULD IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY OVER JAVIER. BUT AT THE MOMENT...NEITHER SHIPS NOR THE GFDL INDICATES THIS SCENARIO. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH 72 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THEN A RAPID DECREASE AS JAVIER MOVES OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THERE STILL MAY BE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES CONTINUE. INITIAL MOTION IS 325/6...WITH AN EXPECTED GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL ALL AGREE WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER CENTRAL MEXICO IN 36 HOURS AS IVAN MOVES INLAND. THIS SHOULD STEER JAVIER IN A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS. AFTERWARD...A REDUCTION IN SPEED AND A TURN TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TOWARD THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE GUNS CONSENSUS...WHICH EXCLUDES THE WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS...AND FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 18.3N 108.7W 120 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 19.1N 109.3W 115 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 20.3N 110.0W 105 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 21.5N 111.0W 95 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 22.6N 112.1W 85 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 25.0N 114.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 26.5N 115.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 27.5N 115.5W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Sep-2004 14:55:15 UTC