Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED SEP 15 2004

LATEST INFRARED IMAGERY AND BD ENHANCEMENT OF JAVIER DEPICTS A WELL
ORGANIZED HURRICANE. PREVIOUS IMAGERY SHOWED AN OBSCURE EYE WHICH
HAS SINCE RE-EMERGED. A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM AROUND 02Z
HAS SLIGHTLY TRIMMED BACK THE 34 KT WIND RADII TO 100 NM IN ALL
QUADRANTS. THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
REMAIN UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...HENCE THE INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 125 KTS. 

CURRENT MOTION IS 335/4 AND A GRADUAL NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSISTENT WITH A MOTION WHICH MOVES NORTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE
BAJA PENINSULA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS SOLUTION WHICH
DEVIATES BY MOVING JAVIER DUE WEST. THE GFS BUILDS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...HOWEVER THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE SUITE DEPICTS A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST WHICH WEAKENS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE AND GENERALLY
DRIVES JAVIER NORTHWEST AND FINALLY NORTH INTO NORTHERN BAJA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TOWARD THE GUNS CONSENUS WHICH DOES NOT INCLUDE GFS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  JAVIER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE WITH SOME
GRADUAL WEAKENING UNTIL THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.  DURING
EXTENDED FORECAST TIME PERIOD...JAVIER MOVES INTO MUCH COOLER SSTS
AND ENCOUNTERS STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM THE DEEPENING
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID WEAKENING OF JAVIER BEYOND 96
HOURS.

FORECASTER SISKO/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 18.0N 108.3W   125 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 108.7W   120 KT
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 19.6N 109.5W   110 KT
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 20.9N 110.5W   100 KT
 48HR VT     17/0600Z 22.0N 111.7W    90 KT
 72HR VT     18/0600Z 24.0N 113.6W    80 KT
 96HR VT     19/0600Z 25.5N 115.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     20/0600Z 27.5N 115.5W    30 KT
 
 
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