Hurricane JAVIER

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004
 
RECENT IR IMAGES SHOW THAT THE EYE OF JAVIER HAS FILLED IN...
WITH WARMER CLOUD TOPS IN THE SE QUADRANT. DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 0000
UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB KEEP JAVIER AT 127 KT...THUS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 125 KT. HOWEVER...THAT MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN
THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE AREA. THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR MAY BE IMPACTING
THE SYSTEM AS THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
ASYMMETRICAL. JAVIER CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST A BIT MORE TO THE RIGHT
THIS EVENING.  CURRENT MOTION IS 335/4 BUT A GRADUAL RETURN TO A
NORTHWEST TRACK IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FOR THE EARLY FORECAST
PERIODS.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AS THIS OCCURS...JAVIER
SHOULD RESPOND BY GRADUALLY ACQUIRING A MORE WESTWARD COMPONENT TO
ITS MOTION.  THERE HAS BEEN SOME CHANGE IN THE MODELS AT THE 4 AND
5 DAY PERIODS.  AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THEY
SUGGEST THAT A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL TURN JAVIER TOWARD THE NORTH TO A GREATER DEGREE THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. ALTHOUGH THIS TAKES JAVIER CLOSE TO THE
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN 5 DAYS...THE COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AT THOSE LATITUDES SHOULD WEAKEN JAVIER WELL BEFORE IT
REACHES THE COAST...IF IT WERE TO FOLLOW A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK.
THIS FORECAST SCENARIO EXCLUDES THE GFS GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY BUILDING IN A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE THAN OTHER MODELS.
THE GFS KEEPS JAVIER WELL SOUTH OF THE OTHER DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND
IS DISCOUNTED AT THIS TIME.

REASONING FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED. ALTHOUGH THE
CURRENT STATE OF JAVIER INDICATES SOME WEAKENING...THERE ARE NO
OBVIOUS REASONS WHY JAVIER SHOULD NOT RECOVER AND STRENGTHEN AGAIN
BEFORE MOVING OVER COLDER WATER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
FORECAST REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN SHIPS AT THE EARLIER FORECAST
PERIOD...THEN COMES MORE IN LINE WITH IT AT THE 4 AND 5 DAY
PERIODS.

WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY INWARD BASED ON AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT PASS AND AMSU WIND RADII GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 17.6N 108.1W   125 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 18.1N 108.5W   125 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 18.9N 109.2W   130 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 19.9N 109.9W   130 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 20.6N 110.8W   120 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 22.4N 113.1W    90 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 24.8N 115.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W    35 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN