ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004 A TRMM OVERPASS AT 1411Z SUGGEST THAT JAVIER HAS COMPLETED ITS CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE...AND THE EYE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED ON RECENT VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGERY. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 140 KT FROM AFWA AND 127 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON THE MORE DITINCT EYE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 130 KT. CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS...EXCEPT TO THE EAST WHERE IT IS POOR. JAVIER HAS TURNED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TODAY AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 325/5. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ANALYZE A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND FORECAST THIS TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY A SECOND TROUGH OFF THE U. S. WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST 96 HR. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH HAS A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND TURNS JAVIER MORE TOWARD THE WEST. THAT SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR THE MOMENT...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK BEING DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 96 HR...JAVIER MAY TURN MORE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE SECOND TROUGH...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE 120 HR POSITION. NOTE THAT WHILE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS JAVIER WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...ANY FURTHER MOTION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER MUCH CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE FACTORS TO KEEP JAVIER FROM RE-INTENSIFYING NOW THAT THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE IS OVER...AND THUS THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR JAVIER TO STRENGTHEN TO 135 KT IN 24 HR. THERE MAY BE FLUCUATIONS IN INTENSITY AS SUBSEQUENT CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLES OCCUR. AT ABOUT 72 HR...JAVIER WILL MOVE OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS MUCH STRONGER THAN EITHER SHIPS OF THE GFDL. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 17.2N 107.8W 125 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 17.7N 108.1W 130 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 108.8W 135 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 19.2N 109.5W 130 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W 125 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 23.0N 114.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 26.0N 116.5W 50 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 14-Sep-2004 20:56:20 UTC