ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004 JAVIER APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY FOR THE MOMENT. WHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HR...THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT...AND A 0850Z AQUA OVERPASS SUGGESTS A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE IS IN PROGRESS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 140 KT FROM AFWA AND 127 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6. LARGE-SCALE MODELS ANALYZE A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND FORECAST THIS TO STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MOVES EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY A SECOND TROUGH OFF THE U. S. WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST 96 HR. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH HAS A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND TURNS JAVIER MORE TOWARD THE WEST. THAT SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR THE MOMENT...WITH THE FORECAST TRACK BEING DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. NOTE THAT WHILE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS JAVIER WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER MUCH CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA. JAVIER HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTION EXCEPT TO THE EAST...AND THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE FACTORS TO KEEP IT FROM RE-INTENSIFYING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THE HURRICANE WILL RE-INTENSIFY AS IT FINISHES THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE. AT ABOUT 72 HR...JAVIER WILL MOVE OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS MUCH STRONGER THAN EITHER SHIPS OF THE GFDL. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 16.8N 107.7W 120 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 17.3N 108.1W 125 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 18.0N 108.7W 135 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 18.8N 109.4W 130 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 19.6N 110.3W 125 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 23.0N 114.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W 55 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 14-Sep-2004 14:44:49 UTC