Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004
 
JAVIER APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED IN INTENSITY FOR THE MOMENT.  WHILE
CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED NEAR THE CENTER OVER THE PAST 6 HR...THE EYE
HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT...AND A 0850Z AQUA OVERPASS SUGGESTS A
CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE IS IN PROGRESS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 140 KT FROM AFWA AND 127 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 120 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/6.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS ANALYZE A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND FORECAST THIS TO
STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
MOVES EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY A SECOND TROUGH OFF THE U. S.
WEST COAST.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO CONTINUE ON A SLOW TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST THROUGH AT LEAST 96 HR.  MOST GUIDANCE AGREES
ON THIS SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH HAS A MUCH STRONGER
RIDGE THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND TURNS JAVIER MORE TOWARD THE WEST. 
THAT SOLUTION IS DISCOUNTED FOR THE MOMENT...WITH THE FORECAST
TRACK BEING DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS.  NOTE THAT WHILE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS JAVIER WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...ANY MOTION TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER
MUCH CLOSER TO THE PENINSULA.
 
JAVIER HAS GOOD OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTION EXCEPT TO THE EAST...AND
THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS LARGE-SCALE FACTORS TO KEEP IT FROM
RE-INTENSIFYING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE PREMISE
THAT THE HURRICANE WILL RE-INTENSIFY AS IT FINISHES THE CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE.  AT ABOUT 72 HR...JAVIER WILL MOVE OVER GRADUALLY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS
MUCH STRONGER THAN EITHER SHIPS OF THE GFDL.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 16.8N 107.7W   120 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 17.3N 108.1W   125 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 108.7W   135 KT
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 18.8N 109.4W   130 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 19.6N 110.3W   125 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N 112.5W   115 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 23.0N 114.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     19/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W    55 KT
 
 
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