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Hurricane JAVIER (Text)

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON SEP 13 2004
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 127 KT...WHILE
AFWA CLASSIFIED JAVIER WITH 140 KT WINDS. THIS CONTINUES THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TREND THAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS.  ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURES HAVE DROPPED 49 MB IN THE LAST
24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 130 KT BASED ON A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A CONTINUATION OF AN IMPRESSIVE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MOTION SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE CURRENT TRACK. AFTER THAT TIME...A STRONG RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AHEAD OF A DEEP TROUGH
APPROACHING THE WESTERN UNITED STATES COAST. IN THIS
SCENARIO...JAVIER WILL GRADUALLY OBTAIN A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT
TO ITS MOTION ALONG WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN SPEED. THIS TRACK
WILL KEEP JAVIER WELL OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST TO
WARRANT CLOSE MONITORING OF JAVIER FOR THOSE IN THE PENINSULA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFDL AND UKMET
MODELS...THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER TO THE SOUTH...KEEPING JAVIER AT 18N
LATITUDE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST DISCUSSION...THERE IS LITTLE REASON TO
BELIEVE THAT THE WEAKENING TREND FORECAST BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL
MODELS WILL VERIFY. ASSUMING THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION
PHASE WILL END SOON...JAVIER IS FORECAST TO REACH 135 KT IN 12
HOURS.  BEYOND THAT TIME...JAVIER WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER WARM
SSTS IN A MOSTLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT.  GRADUAL
WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS COOLER SSTS ARE ENCOUNTERED LATER IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  UNTIL THAT TIME...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY AS EYEWALL CYCLES OCCUR.     
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 16.2N 107.0W   130 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 17.0N 107.6W   135 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 17.7N 108.0W   135 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 18.4N 108.6W   130 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 19.1N 109.3W   125 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 20.8N 111.1W   120 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 22.4N 112.9W    95 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 24.7N 115.2W    75 KT
 
 
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