ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON SEP 13 2004 DVORAK NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND AFWA WERE 115 KT AND SAB CAME IN WITH 127 KT. LATEST RAW ODT ESTIMATES FROM CIMSS CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 115 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AGAIN BLENDS THESE NUMBERS TO GET 120 KT. MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS THAT A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN THE INTENSIFICATION TREND SHOULD SLOW SOON. JAVIER REMAINS SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN SOME MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE. BY ALL ACCOUNTS...THE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND WITH WARM WATER BELOW...I SEE NO REASON WHY THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL AFTER 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST KEEPS JAVIER AS A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGH 96 HOURS...WHEN IT WILL BE APPROACHING COOLER WATERS. EYEWALL CYCLES COULD...OF COURSE...CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8...ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. THERE HAVE BEEN ONLY MODEST CHANGES TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING AND FORECAST TRACK. THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAS ONLY A WEAK STEERING REFLECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND THIS COULD ALLOW A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...RIDGING INCREASES OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES LIFTS OUT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS RIDGING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO TURN JAVIER'S TRACK BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT AND KEEP JAVIER WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO SOON TO RULE OUT AN IMPACT THERE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS LARGELY SPLIT INTO TWO MAIN OPTIONS AT THIS TIME. THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS CONTINUE TO TAKE JAVIER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AGAIN FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FAVORING THIS SCENARIO. ALTERNATIVELY...THE GFS IS EVEN SLOWER AND MORE WESTWARD. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/2100Z 15.5N 106.3W 120 KT 12HR VT 14/0600Z 16.2N 107.1W 125 KT 24HR VT 14/1800Z 17.0N 107.7W 115 KT 36HR VT 15/0600Z 17.8N 108.2W 115 KT 48HR VT 15/1800Z 18.6N 109.0W 115 KT 72HR VT 16/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 17/1800Z 22.0N 112.5W 100 KT 120HR VT 18/1800Z 24.0N 114.5W 80 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 13-Sep-2004 20:34:36 UTC