Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON SEP 13 2004
 
JAVIER CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...AS INDICATED BY THE APPEARANCE OF A
CLEAR EYE EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN
-80C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA...TAFB...AND SAB ARE
90...102...AND 115 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE 1330Z ODT FROM
UW/CIMSS GIVES ABOUT 95 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY BLENDS THESE
ESTIMATES AND IS INCREASED TO 105 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. JAVIER IS
SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN SOME EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
HURRICANE. THIS SHEAR WOULD SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AS JAVIER WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM WATER
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFDL CALLS FOR IMMEDIATE
WEAKENING...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES SO AFTER 12 HOURS OF
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AND SO I AM RELUCTANT TO FOLLOW THE WEAKENING TRENDS
CALLED FOR BY THIS GUIDANCE. INSTEAD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
CALL FOR A ROUGHLY STEADY STATE HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/9.  THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA HAS A WEAK STEERING REFLECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS.  OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...RIDGING INCREASES OVER NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LIFTS OUT.  IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS RIDGING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP JAVIER WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ALTHOUGH AN
IMPACT THERE CANNOT YET BE RULED OUT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO
TWO MAIN OPTIONS AT THIS TIME.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS TAKE
JAVIER SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FAVORING THIS SCENARIO.  AN ALTERNATIVE
SOLUTION IS OFFERED BY THE GFS...WHICH MAINTAINS THE 500 MB HIGH
FARTHER SOUTH AND CONSEQUENTLY TAKES JAVIER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 15.0N 105.7W   105 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 15.8N 106.7W   115 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 16.6N 107.6W   115 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 17.3N 108.3W   115 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 109.0W   115 KT
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 110.5W   115 KT
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N 112.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     18/1200Z 23.0N 113.5W    90 KT
 
 
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