ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004 THE LAST VISIBLE PICTURES FOR THE DAY SHOWED JAVIERS POORLY-DEFINED EYE DISAPPEARING UNDER A CDO THAT DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE NOW 77 KT...SO JAVIERS INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KTS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/9. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. JAVIER REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 72 HR OR SO AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...THEN THE RIDGE MAY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 96 HR AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND A NEW TROUGH DIGS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO TURN NORTHWARD WITH DECELERATION DURING THE NEXT 96 HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN THEREAFTER. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION...WITH THE GFS FORECAST NOW BEING A MAJOR OUTLIER IN THAT IT MOVES THE SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST WHEN COMPARED TO THE CONCENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS. THE WHOLE MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST WHICH LESSENS THE THREAT TO MAINLAND MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE 120 HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS FOR THE UKMET...GFDL AND THE OFFICIAL ARE ALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. JAVIER IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST 72 HR. THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THAT TIME. SHIPS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH 100 KTS IN 36-48 HOURS AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 14.0N 104.2W 75 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 14.7N 105.2W 85 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 15.7N 106.1W 95 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 16.6N 106.6W 100 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 17.5N 107.1W 100 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 107.6W 100 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 20.6N 108.6W 100 KT 120HR VT 18/0000Z 22.0N 110.0W 100 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 13-Sep-2004 02:34:25 UTC