Hurricane JAVIER

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HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004
 
THE LAST VISIBLE PICTURES FOR THE DAY SHOWED JAVIERS POORLY-DEFINED
EYE DISAPPEARING UNDER A CDO THAT DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
NOW 77 KT...SO JAVIERS INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/9. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE
SAME. JAVIER REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT 72 HR OR SO AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...THEN THE RIDGE MAY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 96 HR AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT AND A NEW TROUGH DIGS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO TURN
NORTHWARD WITH DECELERATION DURING THE NEXT 96 HR...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN THEREAFTER. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION...WITH
THE GFS FORECAST NOW BEING A MAJOR OUTLIER IN THAT IT MOVES THE
SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST WHEN COMPARED TO THE CONCENSUS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS
MODELS. THE WHOLE MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST
WHICH LESSENS THE THREAT TO MAINLAND MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE 120 HOUR
FORECAST POSITIONS FOR THE UKMET...GFDL AND THE OFFICIAL ARE ALL
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

JAVIER IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST
72 HR. THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THAT
TIME. SHIPS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH 100 KTS IN 36-48 HOURS
AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. 

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 14.0N 104.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.7N 105.2W    85 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 15.7N 106.1W    95 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 16.6N 106.6W   100 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N 107.1W   100 KT
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N 107.6W   100 KT
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 20.6N 108.6W   100 KT
120HR VT     18/0000Z 22.0N 110.0W   100 KT
 
 
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