Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane JAVIER


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004
 
THE LAST VISIBLE PICTURES FOR THE DAY SHOWED JAVIERS POORLY-DEFINED
EYE DISAPPEARING UNDER A CDO THAT DEVELOPED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE
OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE
NOW 77 KT...SO JAVIERS INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 75 KTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/9. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE
SAME. JAVIER REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT 72 HR OR SO AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...THEN THE RIDGE MAY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 96 HR AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT AND A NEW TROUGH DIGS JUST OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO TURN
NORTHWARD WITH DECELERATION DURING THE NEXT 96 HR...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN THEREAFTER. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION...WITH
THE GFS FORECAST NOW BEING A MAJOR OUTLIER IN THAT IT MOVES THE
SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST WHEN COMPARED TO THE CONCENSUS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS
MODELS. THE WHOLE MODEL SUITE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST
WHICH LESSENS THE THREAT TO MAINLAND MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE 120 HOUR
FORECAST POSITIONS FOR THE UKMET...GFDL AND THE OFFICIAL ARE ALL
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

JAVIER IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST
72 HR. THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THAT
TIME. SHIPS CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH 100 KTS IN 36-48 HOURS
AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO. 

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/0300Z 14.0N 104.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.7N 105.2W    85 KT
 24HR VT     14/0000Z 15.7N 106.1W    95 KT
 36HR VT     14/1200Z 16.6N 106.6W   100 KT
 48HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N 107.1W   100 KT
 72HR VT     16/0000Z 19.0N 107.6W   100 KT
 96HR VT     17/0000Z 20.6N 108.6W   100 KT
120HR VT     18/0000Z 22.0N 110.0W   100 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 13-Sep-2004 02:34:25 UTC