ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004 CURRENT INFRARED AND EARLIER TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT JAVIER IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND NOW WRAPPING ALMOST ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB...55 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/10. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. JAVIER IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 72-96 HR AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...THEN THE RIDGE MAY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 96 HR AS THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO TURN SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 96 HR...FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWESTWARD TURN THEREAFTER. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. JAVIER IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST 72 HR. THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. THE GFDL FORECASTS A 109 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR...AND JAVIER COULD REACH THAT INTENSITY. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 12.6N 102.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 13/0000Z 13.3N 103.9W 70 KT 24HR VT 13/1200Z 14.2N 105.0W 80 KT 36HR VT 14/0000Z 15.1N 105.8W 85 KT 48HR VT 14/1200Z 16.1N 106.2W 90 KT 72HR VT 15/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W 95 KT 96HR VT 16/1200Z 20.5N 107.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 17/1200Z 21.5N 108.0W 95 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 12-Sep-2004 14:34:30 UTC