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Tropical Storm JAVIER


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 12 2004

CURRENT INFRARED AND EARLIER TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
JAVIER IS APPROACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH...WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE
BAND NOW WRAPPING ALMOST ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB...55 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35
KT FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT ON THIS
ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/10.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 
JAVIER IS CURRENTLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO.  LARGE SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO WEAKEN DURING
THE NEXT 72-96 HR AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...THEN THE RIDGE MAY RE-INTENSIFY AFTER 96 HR AS THE TROUGH
LIFTS OUT.  THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW JAVIER TO TURN
SLOWLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 96 HR...FOLLOWED BY A
NORTHWESTWARD TURN THEREAFTER.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH
THIS SCENARIO WITH SOME SPREAD IN BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTION.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
GUNS...GUNA...AND CONU CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS BASICALLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
JAVIER IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO REMAIN LIGHT FOR AT LEAST
72 HR.  THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD STEADILY STRENGTHEN DURING THAT
TIME.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS
MODEL.  THE GFDL FORECASTS A 109 KT INTENSITY IN 48 HR...AND JAVIER
COULD REACH THAT INTENSITY.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      12/1500Z 12.6N 102.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     13/0000Z 13.3N 103.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     13/1200Z 14.2N 105.0W    80 KT
 36HR VT     14/0000Z 15.1N 105.8W    85 KT
 48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.1N 106.2W    90 KT
 72HR VT     15/1200Z 18.0N 106.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     16/1200Z 20.5N 107.0W    95 KT
120HR VT     17/1200Z 21.5N 108.0W    95 KT
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Sunday, 12-Sep-2004 14:34:30 UTC