ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004 JAVIER IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVERALL WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUING TO INDICATE A SMALL CDO FEATURE WITH INCREASING CURVATURE TO THE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 2.5 FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT REPRESENTS AN AVERAGE OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO RETROGRADE IN 36-48 HOURS AND ALLOW A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES...THEREBY LOWERING HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST BY 72 HOURS WITH SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS...GUNA AND CONU CONSENSUS WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FORECASTING A NORTHWARD TURN. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 28-29C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK OF JAVIER. IN ADDITION THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE NORTHEASTERLY 20 KT SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BY 24 HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR JAVIER TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS AND LEVEL OFF AT 80 KNOTS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GFDL IS AGAIN MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE INTENSIFICATION...BRINGING JAVIER TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS AND TO A 100 KNOT HURRICANE BY 42-48 HOURS. FORECASTER COBB/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/2100Z 12.2N 99.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/0600Z 12.4N 100.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 12/1800Z 12.9N 102.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 13/0600Z 13.7N 103.1W 65 KT 48HR VT 13/1800Z 14.5N 104.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 14/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 15/1800Z 18.5N 105.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 16/1800Z 20.5N 106.0W 80 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 11-Sep-2004 20:34:29 UTC