Tropical Storm JAVIER

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TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004
 
JAVIER IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVERALL WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUING TO INDICATE A SMALL CDO FEATURE WITH INCREASING
CURVATURE TO THE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T
NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 2.5 FROM
AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT REPRESENTS AN AVERAGE OF THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO RETROGRADE IN 36-48 HOURS AND ALLOW A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES...THEREBY LOWERING HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST BY 72 HOURS WITH SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD SPEED.
THIS TRACK IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS...GUNA AND CONU
CONSENSUS WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FORECASTING A NORTHWARD
TURN.
 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 28-29C ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK OF JAVIER. IN ADDITION THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS 
THE NORTHEASTERLY 20 KT SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BY 24
HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR JAVIER TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36
HOURS AND LEVEL OFF AT 80 KNOTS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GFDL IS AGAIN 
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE INTENSIFICATION...BRINGING JAVIER TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS AND TO A 100 KNOT HURRICANE BY 42-48
HOURS.
 
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 12.2N  99.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 12.4N 100.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 12.9N 102.1W    55 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 13.7N 103.1W    65 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 14.5N 104.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 105.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 106.0W    80 KT
 
 
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