Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm JAVIER


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JAVIER DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT SEP 11 2004
 
JAVIER IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED OVERALL WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUING TO INDICATE A SMALL CDO FEATURE WITH INCREASING
CURVATURE TO THE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK T
NUMBERS ONCE AGAIN ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 2.5 FROM
AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT REPRESENTS AN AVERAGE OF THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE AGENCIES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. GLOBAL
MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO RETROGRADE IN 36-48 HOURS AND ALLOW A
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES...THEREBY LOWERING HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK AND CALLS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR
THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN A TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST BY 72 HOURS WITH SOME SLOWING IN THE FORWARD SPEED.
THIS TRACK IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GUNS...GUNA AND CONU
CONSENSUS WHICH HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN FORECASTING A NORTHWARD
TURN.
 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 28-29C ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK OF JAVIER. IN ADDITION THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS 
THE NORTHEASTERLY 20 KT SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN BY 24
HOURS. THE SHIPS MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY FOR THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR JAVIER TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36
HOURS AND LEVEL OFF AT 80 KNOTS ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE GFDL IS AGAIN 
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE INTENSIFICATION...BRINGING JAVIER TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS AND TO A 100 KNOT HURRICANE BY 42-48
HOURS.
 
FORECASTER COBB/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 12.2N  99.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 12.4N 100.7W    45 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 12.9N 102.1W    55 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 13.7N 103.1W    65 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 14.5N 104.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W    75 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 18.5N 105.5W    80 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 20.5N 106.0W    80 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 11-Sep-2004 20:34:29 UTC