ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 36 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU SEP 16 2004 THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON ISIS...FOR THE SECOND TIME. NO DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS. ISIS REMAINS A SWIRL OF STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. I AM LEAVING THE 30 KTS IN THIS PACKAGE BASED UPON THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND SSM/I OVERPASS INFORMATION. VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT COMEBACK FOR THE MOMENT. WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION THE SHIPS MODEL NOW CALLS FOR A REMNANT LOW OUT TO 120 HRS WITH NO DISSIPATION. ISIS SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS IF NO NEW DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 225/3 LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 17.8N 132.9W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 17.6N 133.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 18/0000Z 17.4N 133.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 18/1200Z 17.2N 134.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 19/0000Z 16.9N 135.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 20/0000Z 16.6N 136.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 21/0000Z 16.2N 137.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 22/0000Z 16.0N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 17-Sep-2004 02:44:57 UTC