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Hurricane ISIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 16 2004
 
THE CLOCK IS TICKING ON ISIS...FOR THE SECOND TIME. NO DEEP
CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS. ISIS REMAINS A SWIRL OF STRATUS AND
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. I AM LEAVING THE 30 KTS IN THIS PACKAGE BASED
UPON THE EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND SSM/I OVERPASS INFORMATION. VERTICAL
SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT COMEBACK FOR THE MOMENT. WITH THE WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION
THE SHIPS MODEL NOW CALLS FOR A REMNANT LOW OUT TO 120 HRS WITH NO
DISSIPATION. ISIS SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 6-12 HOURS IF
NO NEW DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 225/3  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE
SHOULD DRIFT WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE
GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 17.8N 132.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 17.6N 133.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 17.4N 133.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 17.2N 134.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 16.9N 135.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 16.6N 136.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     21/0000Z 16.2N 137.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     22/0000Z 16.0N 139.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 17-Sep-2004 02:44:57 UTC