ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 35 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU SEP 16 2004 ISIS REMAINS A CONVECTION SWIRL OF OF STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND SSM/I OVERPASSES INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...AND BASED ON THIS THE CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. VERTICAL SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT COMEBACK FOR THE MOMENT...AS EVEN THE SHIPS MODEL IS NOW CALLING FOR DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS. ISIS SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 HR...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 120 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY DUBIOUS 205/2. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION...AND THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 18.0N 132.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 17.9N 132.6W 25 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 17.8N 133.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 18/0600Z 17.7N 134.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 18/1800Z 17.3N 134.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 19/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 20/1800Z 17.0N 137.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Sep-2004 20:46:01 UTC