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Hurricane ISIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 16 2004
 
ISIS REMAINS A CONVECTION SWIRL OF OF STRATUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  EARLIER QUIKSCAT AND SSM/I
OVERPASSES INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT...AND BASED ON THIS THE
CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND
COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
COMEBACK FOR THE MOMENT...AS EVEN THE SHIPS MODEL IS NOW CALLING
FOR DISSIPATION IN 24 HOURS.  ISIS SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
24-36 HR...AND THEN DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 120 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY DUBIOUS 205/2.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SUGGEST THE CYCLONE SHOULD DRIFT GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION...AND THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 18.0N 132.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 17.9N 132.6W    25 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 17.8N 133.2W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 17.7N 134.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 17.3N 134.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 17.0N 136.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     20/1800Z 17.0N 137.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN



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Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Sep-2004 20:46:01 UTC