Hurricane ISIS

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TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 15 2004
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL AROUND THE CENTER.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB AND
AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 55 KTS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/5.  ISIS IS EMBEDDED
IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND WILL BE DRIFTING ABOUT DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.  THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE NOW CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL
FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
 
THE MORE NORTHERLY POSITION HAS BROUGHT ISIS OVER COOLER WATER AND
THIS IS LIKELY PLAYING A ROLE IN THE CURRENT WEAKENING. IF THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE CORRECT AND ISIS EVENTUALLY MOVES TOWARD THE WEST
AND THAN SOUTHWEST IT MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE ANOTHER COMEBACK BUT WE
WILL ASSUME A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND UNTIL THAT HAPPENS.


FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 18.6N 132.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 18.7N 132.7W    55 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 18.7N 133.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 18.6N 133.7W    50 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 18.4N 134.3W    45 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 18.3N 134.7W    40 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 18.2N 135.1W    35 KT
120HR VT     21/0000Z 18.1N 135.5W    30 KT
 
 
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