Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane ISIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 15 2004
 
THE EYE STRUCTURE SEEN EARLIER HAS COLLAPSED COMPLETELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH DEEP CONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO A RELATIVELY SMALL
AREA IN THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 55 KT FROM AFWA.  IN VIEW OF THE
DEGENERATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60 KT...AND
THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/4.  ISIS IS EMBEDDED
IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND WILL GO NOWHERE FAST DURING THE NEXT
FIVE DAYS.  MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL
FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.
 
THE MORE NORTHERLY POSITION HAS PROBABLY BROUGHT ISIS OVER COOLER
WATER...AND THIS IS LIKELY PLAYING A ROLE IN THE CURRENT WEAKENING. 
BETWEEN THE COOL WATER AND STRATOCUMULUS ENTRAINMENT CURRENLY SEEN
IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...ISIS SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/2100Z 18.2N 132.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     16/0600Z 18.3N 132.4W    55 KT
 24HR VT     16/1800Z 18.4N 132.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     17/0600Z 18.5N 133.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     17/1800Z 18.5N 133.5W    45 KT
 72HR VT     18/1800Z 18.5N 134.0W    40 KT
 96HR VT     19/1800Z 18.5N 134.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N 135.0W    30 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Sep-2004 20:45:57 UTC