Hurricane ISIS

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HURRICANE ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 15 2004
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0636Z SHOW THAT
ISIS HAS FORMED A RAGGED BUT PERSISTENT EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED
ON THE EYE AND THE STRONGER INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ISIS IS UPGRADED
TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/5.  ISIS IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AND WILL GO NOWHERE FAST DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  MOST
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.

EXCEPT FOR THE INCREASED INITIAL INTENSITY...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ISIS WILL LINGER NEAR THE
26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 
WHILE THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATER JUST TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING...ISIS SHOULD REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM
OR BETTER INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  SHOULD THE CYCLONE
DRIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER THAT COOLER
WATER AND WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 17.9N 132.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 18.0N 132.3W    65 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N 132.6W    60 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 18.0N 132.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N 133.2W    55 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 18.0N 134.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N 135.0W    40 KT
 
 
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