Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane ISIS


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 15 2004
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0636Z SHOW THAT
ISIS HAS FORMED A RAGGED BUT PERSISTENT EYE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  BASED
ON THE EYE AND THE STRONGER INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ISIS IS UPGRADED
TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/5.  ISIS IS EMBEDDED IN WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS AND WILL GO NOWHERE FAST DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  MOST
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL FOLLOW THAT SCENARIO.

EXCEPT FOR THE INCREASED INITIAL INTENSITY...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ISIS WILL LINGER NEAR THE
26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. 
WHILE THE PROXIMITY OF COOLER WATER JUST TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING...ISIS SHOULD REMAIN AT TROPICAL STORM
OR BETTER INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  SHOULD THE CYCLONE
DRIFT NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK...IT WOULD ENCOUNTER THAT COOLER
WATER AND WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 17.9N 132.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 18.0N 132.3W    65 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 18.0N 132.6W    60 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 18.0N 132.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N 133.2W    55 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 18.0N 134.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 18.0N 134.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 18.0N 135.0W    40 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Sep-2004 14:55:14 UTC