ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004 ISIS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE BUT IT APPEARS THAT A GENERAL PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST CONTINUES...300/4. ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO WANT TO KEEP ISIS IN THE SAME AREA OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE EARLY FORECAST CONTINUES THE SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...IT IS AN EDUCATED GUESS AS TO WHERE ISIS WILL BE. THE ONLY CERTAINTY IS THAT IT IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE FAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION SUGGESTS THAT ISIS HAS FINALLY RID ITSELF OF ITS SHEAR INDUCED MALAISE. MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE SLOW MOTION OF ISIS WILL PROBABLY INDUCE SOME UPWELLING OF COLDER WATER. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST...AND IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. FORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 17.3N 131.1W 55 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 17.5N 131.7W 60 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 17.6N 132.1W 60 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 17.7N 132.4W 60 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 17.8N 132.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 17.9N 132.8W 50 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 18.0N 133.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 133.4W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 15-Sep-2004 02:56:16 UTC