Tropical Storm ISIS

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TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004
 
ISIS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KT BASED ON DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION
IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE BUT IT APPEARS THAT A GENERAL
PROGRESSION TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST CONTINUES...300/4.

ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO WANT TO KEEP ISIS IN THE SAME AREA OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE EARLY FORECAST CONTINUES THE SLOW MOVEMENT TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. THEREAFTER...IT IS AN EDUCATED GUESS AS TO WHERE
ISIS WILL BE. THE ONLY CERTAINTY IS THAT IT IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE
FAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
DRIFT...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE RECENT INTENSIFICATION SUGGESTS THAT ISIS HAS FINALLY RID ITSELF
OF ITS SHEAR INDUCED MALAISE. MODEST STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE SLOW MOTION OF ISIS WILL
PROBABLY INDUCE SOME UPWELLING OF COLDER WATER. THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE LONGER TERM FORECAST...AND IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL.    
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/HENNON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 17.3N 131.1W    55 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 17.5N 131.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 17.6N 132.1W    60 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 17.7N 132.4W    60 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 17.8N 132.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 17.9N 132.8W    50 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N 133.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 18.1N 133.4W    45 KT
 
 
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