ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT TUE SEP 14 2004 INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ISIS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH A HEALTHY CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT FROM SAB...AND 35 KT FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY LIGHT AND ISIS IS SHOWING POOR TO FAIR OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 280/5. ISIS IS SOUTH OF LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS WEAKNESS TO PERSIST...WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. TRACK FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE FIRST 48 HR...THEN SPREADS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY WITH FORECAST TRACKS EVERYWHERE FROM WEST THROUGH NORTH THROUGH EAST. THIS GENERALLY MEANS THE MOTION WILL BE SLOW...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT ALONG THE LINES OF THAT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. GIVEN THAT THE 120 HR TRACK GUIDANCE POSITIONS RANGE BETWEEN 124W AND 141W...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. GIVEN THE CURRENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CHANGE TO INCLUDE SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR. BEYOND THAT TIME...IF THE STORM FOLLOWS THE FORECAST TRACK IT WILL BE NEAR OR OVER 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 48-72 HR AND OVER 25C BY 120 HR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE GFDL. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 16.9N 130.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 17.0N 130.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 17.2N 131.3W 50 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 17.4N 131.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 17.6N 132.1W 45 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 18.0N 132.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 18.5N 133.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 18.5N 133.5W 35 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 14-Sep-2004 14:34:53 UTC