ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT FRI SEP 10 2004 ISIS HAS REMAINED CONVENTION FREE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...DESPITE AN APPARENTLY FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE AND WARM OCEAN. ALL THAT REMAINS IS A LOW LEVEL WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM WAS UNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE BUT MAINTAINED A 1.5 FT/2.0 CI FROM ALL AGENCIES BASED ON THE MODEL EXPECTED T-NUMBER. A 13Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION...ISIS HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. EVEN THOUGH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS TRY TO RE-INTENSIFY ISIS AFTER 36-48 HOURS...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR ISIS TO RECOVER AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS ISIS AS A DEPRESSION UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS IN 96 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/9. ISIS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A WESTERLY TRACK BUT IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO THE WEAKENED STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE AND SUBSEQUENT DECOUPLING FROM THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT MAINTAINS THE CYCLONE WITH THE CURRENT INITIAL MOTION. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/2100Z 17.5N 117.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0600Z 17.9N 118.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/1800Z 18.5N 120.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 12/0600Z 18.7N 123.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 12/1800Z 18.8N 126.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 13/1800Z 19.0N 131.0W 30 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 14/1800Z 19.0N 136.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 10-Sep-2004 20:34:36 UTC