ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI SEP 10 2004 ISIS APPEARS TO STILL BE AFFECTED BY EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BASED ON THE SHIPS MODEL INTERPRETATION OF THE GFS FORECAST...SO SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS BEFORE ISIS ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08. THE FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 120 HOURS AS THE STORM IS STEERED BY A RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0900Z 17.6N 115.4W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/1800Z 17.9N 116.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 11/0600Z 18.5N 119.0W 45 KT 36HR VT 11/1800Z 19.0N 121.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/0600Z 19.3N 124.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 13/0600Z 19.4N 129.6W 50 KT 96HR VT 14/0600Z 19.2N 135.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 15/0600Z 19.2N 142.3W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 10-Sep-2004 08:54:42 UTC