ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU SEP 09 2004 THE STORM CONTINUES IN ABOUT THE SAME STATE THAT IT WAS IN THE LAST ADVISORY. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS ALMOST EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF AN AREA OF POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. APPARENTLY THERE IS ENOUGH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM TO PREVENT STRENGTHENING...BUT NOT ENOUGH SHEAR TO WEAKEN IT. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 40 KT...WHICH IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST PRESUMES SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. HOWEVER BY 48 HOURS OR SO...SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BECOME MARGINAL...WHICH SHOULD PROHIBIT STRENGTHENING LATER IN THE PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. THE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT SHOULD STRENGTHEN A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE A TURN TO THE WEST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. HOWEVER THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE ONES FROM THE PREVIOUS TWO ADVISORIES. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING THE QUIKSCAT DATA...WHICH SHOW LITTLE EXTENT OF THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 17.4N 113.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 17.8N 115.1W 45 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 18.4N 117.6W 50 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 18.8N 120.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 19.2N 122.9W 50 KT 72HR VT 12/1800Z 19.5N 128.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 13/1800Z 19.5N 133.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 14/1800Z 19.5N 139.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 09-Sep-2004 20:44:34 UTC