Tropical Storm ISIS

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TROPICAL STORM ISIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 09 2004
 
BASED ON THE FIRST VISIBLE AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES...THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF
PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...SO SOME RELOCATION IS NECESSARY FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS ALSO SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN
IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  A MODERATE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT IS
FORECAST TO EVOLVE...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE A FASTER FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE
SLOWER BECAUSE OF THE REVISED INITIAL MOTION...BUT OTHERWISE FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
ISIS IS NOT WELL-ORGANIZED AT THE MOMENT SINCE THE CENTER IS NEARLY
EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEAST END OF A RAGGEDLY-SHAPED AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION. STRONG EASTERLY-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS IMPACTING THE
STORM AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 40 KT BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT...35 KT...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
AFWA RESPECTIVELY. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEARING
WILL RELAX IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE CURRENTLY
UNIMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE OF ISIS AND THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE SHEAR
WILL PERSIST...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE
CONSERVATIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.


FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 17.0N 112.7W    40 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 17.3N 113.8W    45 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 18.0N 116.2W    50 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 18.5N 118.6W    50 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 18.9N 121.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 19.5N 127.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 19.5N 133.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     14/1200Z 19.5N 140.0W    35 KT
 
 
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