ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT WED SEP 08 2004 LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 1.5/1.5...AND A 25 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. A 0553 UTC AMSU PASS AS WELL AS A 0429 UTC SSMI PASS OVER THIS SYSTEM INDICATED A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER WITH A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION FOUND ON THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE 0000 UTC CONTINUES TO INDICATE INCREASING ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ATTEMPTING TO TUCK BENEATH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A STRONG TROPICAL STORM IN 48 HOURS AS THE EASTERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER IT...BEGINS TO LESSEN. ONLY HINDERING FACTOR BY THAT TIME WILL BE THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SUB 26 DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOTED ALONG THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...PARTICULARLY AT DAYS 4 AND 5. SHIPS ACCOUNTS FOR THE COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY FORECAST DAYS THREE AND FOUR BEFORE WEAKENING THE SYSTEM ON DAY FIVE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH SHIPS THROUGH DAY THREE AND IS WEAKER THEREAFTER DUE TO INCREASINGLY COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES. TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY WNW MOTION AT 10 KT AS A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE N OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A STEERING FLOW MORE DOMINATED BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE N OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL FORCE WHAT IS LEFT OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION DUE WEST THROUGH DAY FIVE. FORECASTER HOLWEG/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/0900Z 15.2N 110.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 08/1800Z 15.9N 112.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 09/0600Z 16.5N 114.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 09/1800Z 16.8N 116.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 10/0600Z 17.2N 118.2W 55 KT 72HR VT 11/0600Z 17.5N 123.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 12/0600Z 17.5N 129.0W 35 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 13/0600Z 17.5N 135.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 08-Sep-2004 09:04:15 UTC