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Hurricane HOWARD


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 05 2004
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND DVORAK T
NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 2.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB.  RECENT
QUIKSCAT AND SSMI DATA SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS ABOUT 30
KT.  THE SYSTEM IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR
THIS ADVISORY.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 22 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG.  THEREFORE...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8
KNOTS.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AND
THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL DISSPATE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS AND IS JUST A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0900Z 25.3N 119.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/1800Z 26.0N 119.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     06/0600Z 26.6N 121.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     06/1800Z 26.8N 122.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     07/0600Z 26.8N 123.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Sep-2004 08:44:38 UTC