Hurricane HOWARD
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 05 2004
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ABSENT FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND DVORAK T
NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 2.0 FROM TAFB AND 1.5 FROM SAB. RECENT
QUIKSCAT AND SSMI DATA SUGGEST THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED IS ABOUT 30
KT. THE SYSTEM IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR
THIS ADVISORY. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 22 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN STRONG. THEREFORE...DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8
KNOTS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST AND
THAT THE REMNANT LOW WILL DISSPATE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE CONU CONSENSUS AND IS JUST A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0900Z 25.3N 119.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 26.0N 119.9W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 06/0600Z 26.6N 121.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 06/1800Z 26.8N 122.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 07/0600Z 26.8N 123.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
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