Hurricane HOWARD
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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 04 2004
HOWARD CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR...EXPOSING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ANY CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A GENEROUS 35 KT BASED ON AN
EARLIER 1500 UTC SSMI PASS THAT SHOWED NO WINDS ABOVE 30 KT AND
SATELLITE ESTIMATES NEAR 45 KT. THE STORM IS MOVING OVER WATERS
COOLER THAN 23C WITH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUATION OF
SOUTHERLY SHEAR. THESE FACTORS SHOULD COMBINE TO WEAKEN HOWARD
RAPIDLY WITH DISSIPATION INTO A REMNANT LOW LIKELY TOMORROW.
THE STORM REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A NORTHWESTERLY MOTION AROUND 8 KT.
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION BENDING TO THE LEFT WITH
TIME AS HOWARD WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CONU. MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HOWARD IS BEING
ENTRAINED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE DESERT REGIONS.
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/0300Z 24.8N 118.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 25.4N 119.3W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 06/0000Z 25.9N 120.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 06/1200Z 26.0N 121.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 07/0000Z 26.0N 122.2W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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