Hurricane HOWARD

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TROPICAL STORM HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT SEP 04 2004

HOWARD CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR...EXPOSING THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ANY CONVECTION WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO A GENEROUS 35 KT BASED ON AN
EARLIER 1500 UTC SSMI PASS THAT SHOWED NO WINDS ABOVE 30 KT AND
SATELLITE ESTIMATES NEAR 45 KT.  THE STORM IS MOVING OVER WATERS
COOLER THAN 23C WITH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUATION OF
SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  THESE FACTORS SHOULD COMBINE TO WEAKEN HOWARD
RAPIDLY WITH DISSIPATION INTO A REMNANT LOW LIKELY TOMORROW.
 
THE STORM REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A NORTHWESTERLY MOTION AROUND 8 KT. 
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS MOTION BENDING TO THE LEFT WITH
TIME AS HOWARD WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CONU.  MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM HOWARD IS BEING
ENTRAINED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... CONTRIBUTING TO AN
ENHANCED CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE DESERT REGIONS.  
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 24.8N 118.5W    35 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 25.4N 119.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 25.9N 120.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 26.0N 121.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 26.0N 122.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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