ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2004 CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 5.5... 5.0... AND 4.0 FROM AIR FORCE... SAB... AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. THE CONTINUED WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS COUPLED WITH THE ARTIFICIALLY HIGH CONSTRAINTS PLACED ON THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE FOR WEAKENING EAST PACIFIC SYSTEMS...IS THE BASIS FOR DECREASOMG THE INTITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO 75 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. HOWARD HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH LAST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATING A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS CLOUDS WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE SYSTEM CENTER FROM THE WEST. THIS FURTHER SUPPORTS THE EXPECTED RAPID WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS AND IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...WITH VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING DOMINATING THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AS BOTH INDICATE A WNW MOTION AT LESS THAN 5 KT BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW CENTER DRIFTS WESTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HOLWEG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 22.1N 116.6W 75 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 23.4N 117.3W 60 KT 24HR VT 05/0000Z 24.8N 118.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 05/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 06/0000Z 27.0N 119.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 07/0000Z 27.5N 120.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 08/0000Z 27.8N 121.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 09/0000Z 28.0N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 04-Sep-2004 02:43:57 UTC