Hurricane HOWARD

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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2004
 
CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 5.5... 5.0... AND 4.0 FROM
AIR FORCE... SAB... AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. THE CONTINUED WARMING OF
CLOUD TOPS COUPLED WITH THE ARTIFICIALLY HIGH CONSTRAINTS PLACED ON
THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE FOR WEAKENING EAST PACIFIC SYSTEMS...IS THE
BASIS FOR DECREASOMG THE INTITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE TO 75 KT ON
THIS ADVISORY. HOWARD HAS BECOME COMPLETELY EMBEDDED IN COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH LAST VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATING A FAIRLY
BROAD AREA OF MARINE LAYER STRATUS CLOUDS WRAPPING IN TOWARD THE
SYSTEM CENTER FROM THE WEST.  THIS FURTHER SUPPORTS THE EXPECTED
RAPID WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS AND IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS...WITH VERY WEAK LOW-LEVEL
STEERING DOMINATING THE TRACK FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AS BOTH INDICATE A WNW MOTION AT LESS THAN 5 KT BEYOND 48
HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW CENTER DRIFTS WESTWARD ON DAYS 4 AND 5. 
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HOLWEG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 22.1N 116.6W    75 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 23.4N 117.3W    60 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 24.8N 118.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 26.0N 118.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 27.0N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 27.5N 120.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 27.8N 121.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     09/0000Z 28.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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