Hurricane HOWARD

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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2004
 
CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 5.5... 5.0... AND 4.5 FROM
AIR FORCE... SAB... AND TAFB RESPECTIVELY. GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL
WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS AND THE LOSS OF THE EYE OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 85 KT. A SHARP
GRADIENT OF DECLINING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXISTS ALONG THE
TRACK OF HOWARD AND CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS HOWARD APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED
AT 12 KT OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH LONGER-TERM MOTION NOW ON THE
ORDER OF 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT. TRACK REASONING REMAINS SIMILAR TO
THIS MORNING WITH GRADUALLY WEAKENING STEERING FLOW IN THE VICINITY
OF HOWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND THE SYSTEM BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW AND THEREFORE MORE INFLUENCED BY LOWER-LEVEL STEERING. A
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE DECREASES SPEED TO NEARLY STATIONARY BY
72 HOURS WITH ERRATIC MOTION INDICATED AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.
THEREFORE THE REMNANT LOW IS HELD STATIONARY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/HOLWEG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 21.4N 116.2W    85 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 22.5N 116.8W    75 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 23.8N 117.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 25.0N 118.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 26.0N 119.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 27.0N 119.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 28.0N 120.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     08/1800Z 28.0N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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