ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2004 CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT. POWERFUL HOWARD HAS BEEN SLOW TO WEAKEN...BUT COOLER WATERS ARE AHEAD SO A GRADUAL DECLINE IS INEVITABLE. THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN HERE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ERRATIC MOTION...SO THE SYSTEM IS MERELY HELD STATIONARY AT DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 20.3N 115.6W 100 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 20.9N 116.4W 95 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 22.2N 117.2W 85 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 23.5N 117.8W 70 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 24.4N 118.2W 60 KT 72HR VT 06/1200Z 26.2N 118.7W 45 KT 96HR VT 07/1200Z 27.5N 119.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 08/1200Z 27.5N 119.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 03-Sep-2004 14:44:10 UTC