Hurricane HOWARD

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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2004

CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KT.  THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT.  POWERFUL HOWARD HAS BEEN SLOW
TO WEAKEN...BUT COOLER WATERS ARE AHEAD SO A GRADUAL DECLINE IS
INEVITABLE.  THE CYCLONE COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN HERE IN THE
LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FURTHER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  AROUND THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS ERRATIC MOTION...SO THE SYSTEM IS MERELY HELD
STATIONARY AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 20.3N 115.6W   100 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.9N 116.4W    95 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 22.2N 117.2W    85 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 23.5N 117.8W    70 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 24.4N 118.2W    60 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 26.2N 118.7W    45 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 27.5N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     08/1200Z 27.5N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
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