Hurricane HOWARD

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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2004
 
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE
HAVE NOW COOLED...THUS...SLOWING THE WEAKENING PROCESS.  DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102 KTS FOR TAFB AND AIR FORCE
GLOBAL AND 115 KTS FOR SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 105
KTS. THE GFDL MODEL FORECASTS A WEAKENING TREND AS WELL AS SHIPS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS WITH SOME MINOR MODIFICATIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/7 KT.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS
MUCH THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGES.  THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH SITUATED NORTH OF HOWARD IS BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER CALIFORNIA.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS...INCLUDING THE UKMET...NOW AGREE ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  THERE IS...OF
COURSE...SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LATER PERIOD FORECAST POSITIONS
AMONG THE MODELS.  FOR THAT REASON THE CONCENSUS IS RELIED ON
HEAVILY.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 19.4N 115.2W   105 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 20.1N 116.0W    95 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 21.3N 116.9W    85 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 22.5N 117.5W    75 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 23.7N 118.1W    65 KT
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 25.7N 118.7W    50 KT
 96HR VT     07/0600Z 27.0N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     08/0600Z 28.0N 119.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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