Hurricane HOWARD

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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 02 2004
 
SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE
HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 127
KT FROM TAFB...115 KT FROM SAB AND 90 KT AFWA.  HOWEVER...AS NOTED
IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THE T NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN.  I THINK
THAT HOWARD PEAKED AT ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS AGO
AND WILL NOW BEGIN OR CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND.  THE TREND WILL
START SLOWLY BECAUSE SEVERAL RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
THE 26 DEGREE SST CONTOUR IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE NW OF THE NCEP
GLOBAL SST ANALYSIS.  SHIPS GUIDANCE WEAKENS HOWARD RAPIDLY BUT
USES THE NCEP GLOBAL SSTS FOR ITS SST POTENTIAL.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN IT AS FAST IN THE EARLY
FORECAST PERIODS.

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS AT 310 AT 8 KT.  THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH SITUATED NORTH OF HOWARD IS BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER CALIFORNIA.  THE U.K. MET CONTINUES TO
BE THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A RECURVE SCENARIO DUE TO THIS TROUGH.
THE FORECAST IS BASED OFF OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH
CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN
FORWARD SPEED.  THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK.

THE WIND RADII AND 12 FOOT SEAS WERE ADJUSTED UPON SHIP
OBSERVATIONS...IN PARTICULAR SHIP A8CI9. 
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 19.1N 114.8W   115 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 19.8N 115.8W   110 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 20.9N 116.8W   100 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 22.2N 117.6W    90 KT
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 23.5N 118.1W    70 KT
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 25.7N 118.7W    50 KT
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 27.0N 119.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     08/0000Z 28.0N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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