ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU SEP 02 2004 SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS THAT THE CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING THE EYE HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST SSM/I PASS REVEALED A PARTIAL COLLAPSE OF THE EYE WALL OVER THE NE QUADRANT. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. HOWEVER...THE DATA T-NUMBERS FROM AFWA AND SAB HAVE DROPPED TO 102 KT INDICATIVE OF THE TEMPORARY WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS. THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 120 KT. BY 24 HOURS...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 26 DEGREES CELSIUS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWARD SHOULD BE OVER SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING RAPIDLY. INITIAL MOTION IS NORTHWESTWARD OR 310 AT 8 KT. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SITUATED NORTH OF HOWARD IS BREAKING DOWN IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER CALIFORNIA. THE U.K. MET CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY MODEL INDICATING A RECURVE SCENARIO DUE TO THIS TROUGH. THE FORECAST IS BASED OFF OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 18.6N 114.3W 120 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 19.4N 115.2W 120 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 116.3W 110 KT 36HR VT 04/0600Z 21.6N 117.1W 100 KT 48HR VT 04/1800Z 23.0N 117.6W 80 KT 72HR VT 05/1800Z 25.5N 118.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 06/1800Z 27.0N 119.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 07/1800Z 28.0N 119.5W 25 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Sep-2004 20:40:37 UTC