ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT THU SEP 02 2004 HOWARD HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH VERY COLD CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED EYE...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KT. THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE EYE APPEARS A LITTLE LARGER NOW...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSITY MAY BE LEVELLING OFF. BY 24 HOURS...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BY 72 HOURS...HOWARD SHOULD BE OVER SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER WATERS AND WEAKENING RAPIDLY. INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NW AROUND 8 KT. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE NORTH OF HOWARD IS COLLAPSING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA. THE U.K. MET CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY DYNAMICAL MODEL THAT RECURVES HOWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS THIS AS WELL. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/1500Z 18.2N 113.6W 120 KT 12HR VT 03/0000Z 18.8N 114.4W 125 KT 24HR VT 03/1200Z 19.7N 115.5W 110 KT 36HR VT 04/0000Z 20.7N 116.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 04/1200Z 21.9N 117.2W 85 KT 72HR VT 05/1200Z 24.5N 118.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 06/1200Z 27.0N 118.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 07/1200Z 28.5N 118.5W 25 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Sep-2004 14:33:51 UTC