Hurricane HOWARD

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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 02 2004

HOWARD HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH VERY COLD CONVECTION
SURROUNDING A WELL-DEFINED EYE...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE NOW 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KT.  THERE IS STILL A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE EYE APPEARS A
LITTLE LARGER NOW...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE INTENSITY MAY BE
LEVELLING OFF.  BY 24 HOURS...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE
HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  BY 72
HOURS...HOWARD SHOULD BE OVER SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER WATERS AND
WEAKENING RAPIDLY.

INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TOWARD THE NW AROUND 8 KT.  THE SUBTROPICAL
HIGH TO THE NORTH OF HOWARD IS COLLAPSING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA.  THE U.K. MET CONTINUES TO BE THE ONLY
DYNAMICAL MODEL THAT RECURVES HOWARD AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH.  THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH WITH
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS
THIS AS WELL.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 18.2N 113.6W   120 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 18.8N 114.4W   125 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 19.7N 115.5W   110 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.7N 116.5W   100 KT
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.9N 117.2W    85 KT
 72HR VT     05/1200Z 24.5N 118.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     06/1200Z 27.0N 118.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     07/1200Z 28.5N 118.5W    25 KT
 
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