Hurricane HOWARD

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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 01 2004
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 90 KT
FROM TAFB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT AND THE
CONVECTION IS ALSO NOT AS SYMMETRIC AS EARLIER...THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW LOOKS STRONG IN ALL QUADRANTS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROHIBITIVE AND THE SSTS WILL
BE WARM FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...SO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
SEEMS LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.  IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...HOWARD WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C SST
ISOTHERM...WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND.

THE FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE NOW 295/8.  HOWARD IS BUMPING UP AGAINST A MID-LEVEL
CENTERED TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES INTO CALIFORNIA.  THERE IS WIDE DIVERGENCE IN THE
MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE UKMET RECURVING HOWARD SHARPLY
NORTHEASTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE GFS WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AND
CONSEQUENTLY DOES NOT RESPOND SO MUCH TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. 
TAKING A MIDDLE ROUTE IS THE GFDL WHICH BENDS THE TRACK TO THE
NORTH AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE RESPONSE OF THE CYCLONE AT THAT TIME IS
LIKELY TO BE DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION IT CAN
MAINTAIN AS SSTS DECREASE.  BASED ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH
MAINTAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BUT IS STILL WELL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL AND UKMET SOLUTIONS. 
GIVEN THE EXTREME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
TRACK FORECAST. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 17.0N 112.4W    80 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 17.6N 113.7W    90 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 18.3N 115.1W    95 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 19.0N 116.5W    95 KT
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 117.5W    90 KT
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 22.0N 118.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     06/0000Z 24.0N 120.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     07/0000Z 26.0N 121.0W    40 KT
 
 
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