ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED SEP 01 2004 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KT...AND THE WIND SPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 70 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS SO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BECAUSE THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT ONLY GOES TO 87 KT AT 36 HOURS. BY 72 HOURS...HOWARD IS FORECAST TO HAVE CROSSED THE 26 DEG C SST ISOTHERM SO WEAKENING SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY THAT TIME. INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST. THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL RECURVES HOWARD SHARPLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE BY 96-120 HOURS THIS SHOULD BE A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT WILL RESPOND MORE TO STEERING BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/1500Z 16.6N 111.2W 70 KT 12HR VT 02/0000Z 17.4N 112.9W 80 KT 24HR VT 02/1200Z 18.4N 114.8W 90 KT 36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.3N 116.5W 95 KT 48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.0N 117.7W 90 KT 72HR VT 04/1200Z 21.5N 119.5W 75 KT 96HR VT 05/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 06/1200Z 24.5N 122.5W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Sep-2004 14:33:51 UTC