Hurricane HOWARD

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HURRICANE HOWARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED SEP 01 2004

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KT...AND THE WIND
SPEED FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 70 KT.  THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS SO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE BECAUSE THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT ONLY GOES TO 87 KT AT
36 HOURS.  BY 72 HOURS...HOWARD IS FORECAST TO HAVE CROSSED THE 26
DEG C SST ISOTHERM SO WEAKENING SHOULD BE UNDERWAY BY THAT TIME.

INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THEREFORE SLOWING OF THE FORWARD
SPEED IS FORECAST.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL RECURVES HOWARD
SHARPLY IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD WHEREAS THE GFS MAINTAINS
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION.  THE RECURVATURE
SCENARIO DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY AT THIS TIME...SINCE BY 96-120 HOURS
THIS SHOULD BE A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT WILL RESPOND MORE TO
STEERING BY LOWER-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/1500Z 16.6N 111.2W    70 KT
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 17.4N 112.9W    80 KT
 24HR VT     02/1200Z 18.4N 114.8W    90 KT
 36HR VT     03/0000Z 19.3N 116.5W    95 KT
 48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 117.7W    90 KT
 72HR VT     04/1200Z 21.5N 119.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     05/1200Z 23.0N 121.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     06/1200Z 24.5N 122.5W    45 KT
 
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